The Poker Game
The reduction of import tariffs on high-end motorcycles in India has been matched by the US raising barriers on H-1B visas. A ding-dong battle has started for the reduction of tariff barriers that prevent US entry into the more lucrative field of poultry, among others, which continue to be protected, thanks to the lobbies they maintain. With claims and counter-claims on the subject of excessive and indiscriminate use of antibiotics in farming, this battle has already commenced in the poultry industry.
Does the industry really use high-end antibiotics? In all such matters, the truth is often not the issue. The pot-stirring itself matters. Will India dismantle the unusually high tariff barriers on the import of processed poultry as a sop to Trump?
Why do I believe that it will? My view hinges on geopolitical realities. Last year the Doklam skirmish stood out as the only instance of any country standing up to China. This was not a chance event. In doing so India willingly placed herself at the business end of nations opposed to Chinese neo-imperialism.
What the world may not have realized is that Doklam was engineered by the PLA to queer the pitch forXi Xinping at the 19th CPC Congress. The PLA leaders have an axe to grind with Xi because of the massive purges he engineered in its top echelons on grounds of corruption. Xi felt that the only means of bringing Chinese GDP growth above the unacceptable 6% rate was to stem this rot. While this rate of growth may be aspired to by other nations, for China it is insufficient to control incipient social unrest and opposition to one-party rule.
Xi now rides a tiger which he cannot dismount. To give himself more time to implement his policies, Xi has now constitutionally assumed the status of an emperor by removing the 1982 clause that limited the reign of a president to a maximum of two terms. (Will ceramic vases from the Xinping Era also become collectors’ items in the 23rd century?).
In such a situation both India and USA need each other to stand firm as allies. Weak-kneed non-alignment will not work anymore. And sooner or later a pragmatist like Modi will see the relevance of jettisoning all protective tariffs in the true spirit of the WTO. This will surely help Trump achieve his electoral promises. India will then follow up with a whole-hearted adoption of GM maize and soya. Together, these two actions will truly make Indian poultry globally competitive.
Meanwhile, this process will play out as an interesting game of poker. We will do well to watch and enjoy. And those of us who hope to benefit from it will do well to make themselves ready for the change.
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